Restructuring the debt - an impossible scenario
Ok, here is a best-guess scenario.
The figures simply do not stack up! Feel free to apply your own optimistic sensitivity testing; this is clearly not the way out for Greece or for Europe.
Or, are we betting that we only need to hold on until 2015 which is when the estimated upswing in global economy might occur?
Economist blog - all this for €20bn savings by 2020?
Sunday, 19 February 2012
Saturday, 18 February 2012
My big, fat Greek default
“The real meaning of enlightenment is to gaze with undimmed eyes on all darkness"
Nikos Kazantzakis
So, Mr Zero Hedge was right all along? It's all been a big theatrical production!
The Slog claims to have evidence: the D-day is 20/3; hold on to your hats!
In summary: European politicians (like all politicians) are vain and want to look both benevolent and in control. Unfortunately, the 2008 crisis has made them look increasingly impotent and foolish. By 2010, a number of European countries were in serious trouble. In petri dish A, Iceland had gone its own way. In petri dish marked B, Greece's 2010 debt restructure had a distinctly fudgy flavour: it was neither a quick default, nor a bail-out. In the late George Papandreou's parlance, the powers that be picked the "third way", aka the "wrong way".
Having used €100bn to refinance German and French banks and stimulate these countries' defence industries... by which I meant to say "to prop up the ailing Greek economy", the self-evident became obvious: increasing debt and lowering GDP is not a recipe for success.
So, in the context of worsening economic conditions, by 2012 the news narrative changed: "no amount of money can save Greece"; "we did what we could, but they coud not save themselves". According to rumours, banks are being fire-walled and preparations are almost complete for a big, fat Greek default.
The on-line debates revolve around timing of the default (is it March or July), whether Greece can default within the Euro-zone, and what the consequences of a default might be (world-wide armageddon, or just a minor hiccup followed by much-needed Euro house-keeping).
The mainstream media in Europe and Greece provide very little analysis of options and potential consequences. The political leaders have remained equally uncommunicative: they insist that, despite the need for tweaks, the €130bn (or is it €135bn; or is it €145bn) will be approved.
What I would like to see:
The level of destitution and homelessness experienced by the Greek people must be dealt with sound social policies as a matter of priority. Lack of money is not always an excuse (commandeer second homes and unused properties to provide emergency housing; this is, after all, an emergency). Whatever happens with the economy, there will be no happy ending if the country emerges even more divided and fragmented than pre-2008.
Meanwhile, strikes, looting and posturing have become the order of the day. The usual suspects are being wheeled out to spout the same old nonsense (see, Theodorakis) and sing the same old country and western songs about the wrongs that those nasty foreigners have been doing to the country (Germans, Brits, Turkish, French, Russians, even the Finns and the Dutch... take your pick for the villain of the day).
The next installment of the Euro-soap opera is scheduled for 27/2; will the Finance Ministers reach an agreement? More specifically, an agreement to do what?
In summary: European politicians (like all politicians) are vain and want to look both benevolent and in control. Unfortunately, the 2008 crisis has made them look increasingly impotent and foolish. By 2010, a number of European countries were in serious trouble. In petri dish A, Iceland had gone its own way. In petri dish marked B, Greece's 2010 debt restructure had a distinctly fudgy flavour: it was neither a quick default, nor a bail-out. In the late George Papandreou's parlance, the powers that be picked the "third way", aka the "wrong way".
Having used €100bn to refinance German and French banks and stimulate these countries' defence industries... by which I meant to say "to prop up the ailing Greek economy", the self-evident became obvious: increasing debt and lowering GDP is not a recipe for success.
So, in the context of worsening economic conditions, by 2012 the news narrative changed: "no amount of money can save Greece"; "we did what we could, but they coud not save themselves". According to rumours, banks are being fire-walled and preparations are almost complete for a big, fat Greek default.
The on-line debates revolve around timing of the default (is it March or July), whether Greece can default within the Euro-zone, and what the consequences of a default might be (world-wide armageddon, or just a minor hiccup followed by much-needed Euro house-keeping).
The mainstream media in Europe and Greece provide very little analysis of options and potential consequences. The political leaders have remained equally uncommunicative: they insist that, despite the need for tweaks, the €130bn (or is it €135bn; or is it €145bn) will be approved.
What I would like to see:
- Modelling to demonstrate how this bail out... will actually be a bail out; there must be a calculation somewhere at least trying to demonstrate how €Xbn will grow the Greek GDP by Y% by the year 20XX. Surely?!
- Real flesh on the bones of a default scenario: what might be the costs to Europe/ Greece/ World? Just screaming "fire" does not count!
- Economic scenario development to 2020: how are we to recognise early signs of failure (or success) unless we know what to look for? Or should we be planning a bun-fight for 2020, while Greek debt will be approaching half-trillion Euros?
The level of destitution and homelessness experienced by the Greek people must be dealt with sound social policies as a matter of priority. Lack of money is not always an excuse (commandeer second homes and unused properties to provide emergency housing; this is, after all, an emergency). Whatever happens with the economy, there will be no happy ending if the country emerges even more divided and fragmented than pre-2008.
Meanwhile, strikes, looting and posturing have become the order of the day. The usual suspects are being wheeled out to spout the same old nonsense (see, Theodorakis) and sing the same old country and western songs about the wrongs that those nasty foreigners have been doing to the country (Germans, Brits, Turkish, French, Russians, even the Finns and the Dutch... take your pick for the villain of the day).
The next installment of the Euro-soap opera is scheduled for 27/2; will the Finance Ministers reach an agreement? More specifically, an agreement to do what?
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